Hydrologic Risk Analysis for Nonstationary Streamflow Records under Uncertainty
作者: Z. Li G. H. Huang Y. R. Fan J. L. Xu
刊名: Journal of Environmental Informatics, 2015, Vol.26 (1)
来源数据库: International Society for Environmental Information Science
DOI: 10.3808/jei.201500321
关键词: Nonstationarityuncertaintyhydrologic frequency analysisrisk assessmentXiangxi River
原始语种摘要: The frequency and magnitude of hydrologic extreme events is critical to water resources management. Traditional hydrologic frequency analysis approaches rely on the inappropriate assumption that hydrology is stationary. To tackle the non-stationarity in the streamflow records, we proposed a hydrologic risk analysis framework for the Xiangxi River, one of the largest tributaries of the Three Gorge Region, China. The year 1989 was identified as the change point of the 50-year flow records through a CUSUM approach combined with a Bootstrap test. Annual peak flow frequency analyses were then carried out for the 50-year time series and the records after the identified change point, respectively. The results revealed that, by taking into consideration nonstationarity, the return period of high...
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  • uncertainty 不定
  • stationarity 固定性
  • quantile 分位数
  • management 管理
  • proposed 建议的
  • Analysis 分析
  • exceedance 超过数
  • resources 资源
  • provide 规定
  • records 案卷