A New Approach to Improve Accuracy of Grey Model GMC(1,n) in Time Series Prediction
作者: Sompop MoonchaiWanwisa Rakpuang
作者单位: 1Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
2Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Kamphaeng Phet Rajabhat University, Kamphaeng Phet 62000, Thailand
刊名: Modelling and Simulation in Engineering, 2015, Vol.2015
来源数据库: Directory of Open Access Journals
DOI: 10.1155/2015/126738
原始语种摘要: This paper presents a modified grey model GMC(1,n) for use in systems that involve one dependent system behavior and n-1 relative factors. The proposed model was developed from the conventional GMC(1,n) model in order to improve its prediction accuracy by modifying the formula for calculating the background value, the system of parameter estimation, and the model prediction equation. The modified GMC(1,n) model was verified by two cases: the study of forecasting CO2 emission in Thailand and forecasting electricity consumption in Thailand. The results demonstrated that the modified GMC(1,n) model was able to achieve higher fitting and prediction accuracy compared with the conventional GMC(1,n) and D-GMC(1,n) models.
全文获取路径: DOAJ  (合作)
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关键词翻译
关键词翻译
  • GMC Geiger-Muller Counter
  • forecasting 预报
  • consumption 消耗
  • model 模型
  • system 
  • electricity 电气
  • prediction 预报
  • Thailand 泰国
  • proposed 建议的
  • formula 公式