A Method for Estimating Annual Energy Production Using Monte Carlo Wind Speed Simulation
作者: Birgir HrafnkelssonGudmundur V. OddssonRunar Unnthorsson
作者单位: 1Faculty of Physical Sciences, Department of Mathematics, University of Iceland, Reykjavik IS-107, Iceland
2Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science, Centre for Productivity, Performance and Processes, University of Iceland, Hjardarhagi 6,107, Reykjavik IS-107, Iceland
刊名: Energies, 2016, Vol.9 (4)
来源数据库: Directory of Open Access Journals
DOI: 10.3390/en9040286
关键词: Wind speedWind energyMonte Carlo (MC) simulationModified Weibull simulationAnnual energy production (AEP)Method
原始语种摘要: A novel Monte Carlo (MC) approach is proposed for the simulation of wind speed samples to assess the wind energy production potential of a site. The Monte Carlo approach is based on historical wind speed data and reserves the effect of autocorrelation and seasonality in wind speed observations. No distributional assumptions are made, and this approach is relatively simple in comparison to simulation methods that aim at including the autocorrelation and seasonal effects. Annual energy production (AEP) is simulated by transforming the simulated wind speed values via the power curve of the wind turbine at the site. The proposed Monte Carlo approach is generic and is applicable for all sites provided that a sufficient amount of wind speed data and information on the power curve are available....
全文获取路径: DOAJ  (合作)

  • approach 
  • seasonality 季节性
  • AEP 听觉诱发电位
  • speed 速率
  • proposed 建议的
  • estimate 估计
  • simulation 模拟
  • production 生产
  • Energy 能量
  • simulated 模拟试验