Using expanded real options analysis to evaluate capacity expansion decisions under uncertainty in the construction material industry
作者: Momani, Amer MohammadAl-Hawari, Tarek H.Mousa, Rand W.
作者单位: 1Jordan University of Science and Technology
刊名: South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 2016, Vol.27 (2), pp.1-14
来源数据库: Directory of Open Access Journals
DOI: 10.7166/27-2-1381
关键词: Construction material industryCapacity expansionReal options analysisMonte carlo simulation
原始语种摘要: Capacity expansion generally requires large capital expenditure on illiquid assets. Therefore, decisions to enlarge capacity must support the organisation’s strategic objectives and provide valuable input for the budgeting process. This paper applies an expanded form of Real Options Analysis (ROA) to generate and evaluate capacity expansion strategies under uncertainty in the construction material industry. ROA is applied to different expansion strategies associated with different demand scenarios. Evaluating a wider variety of strategies can reduce risk and sponsor decisions that maximise the firm’s value. The case study shows that the execution of a lead expansion strategy with 10-year intervals under a 50 per cent demand satisfaction scenario produces superior results.
全文获取路径: DOAJ  (合作)

  • uncertainty 不定
  • options 保留购买权
  • construction 构造
  • industry 工业
  • material 充填料
  • expansion 膨胀
  • illiquid 不能立即兑现的
  • expenditure 支出
  • demand 需用电力
  • capacity 电容量