A system dynamics modeling on wind grid parity in China
作者: Yuanxin LiuRuijin ZhengLiangjun YiJiahai Yuan
作者单位: 1School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China
2Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development (North China Electric Power University), Changping, Beijing, 102206, China
刊名: Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, Vol.247
来源数据库: Elsevier Journal
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119170
关键词: System dynamics modelWind power grid parityLogistic modelGreen certificate
原始语种摘要: Abstract(#br)Renewable energy is growing quickly in China due to subsidies, but the short-term subsidies cannot maintain long-term stable development of the wind power industry. With increasing environmental risks, it is imperative to achieve wind power grid parity which is the base for market-driven development. But when and how to achieve wind power grid parity is a question worth studying. In this paper, a system dynamics model for studying wind power grid parity is established by combining economic growth theory, logistic learning curve model. The results show that it is difficult to achieve wind grid parity under the current situation (high cost, low utilization hours and serious curtailment), and wind power price will break through 0.4 CNY/kWh in 2023 and should be stable at 0.3...
全文获取路径: Elsevier  (合作)
影响因子:3.398 (2012)

  • system 
  • China 中国
  • parity 宇称
  • modeling 制祝型
  • dynamics 动力学