Structural Analysis and Total Coal Demand Forecast in China
作者: Qing ZhuZhongyu ZhangRongyao LiKin Keung LaiShouyang WangJian ChaiChuangxia Huang
作者单位: 1School of Finance and Economics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, China
2International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
3College of Economics and Management, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
4College of Business, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong
5National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
刊名: Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2014, Vol.2014
来源数据库: Hindawi Journal
DOI: 10.1155/2014/612064
原始语种摘要: Considering the speedy growth of industrialization and urbanization in China and the continued rise of coal consumption, this paper identifies factors that have impacted coal consumption in 1985–2011. After extracting the core factors, the Bayesian vector autoregressive forecast model is constructed, with variables that include coal consumption, the gross value of industrial output, and the downstream industry output (cement, crude steel, and thermal power). The impulse response function and variance decomposition are applied to portray the dynamic correlations between coal consumption and economic variables. Then for analyzing structural changes of coal consumption, the exponential smoothing model is also established, based on division of seven sectors. The results show that the...
全文获取路径: Hindawi  (合作)

  • consumption 消耗
  • China 中国
  • autoregressive 自回归
  • sector 
  • catering 公共饮食业
  • industry 工业
  • household 
  • forecast 预报
  • Analysis 分析
  • retail 零售