A New Approach to Improve Accuracy of Grey Model GMC ( 1 , n ) in Time Series Prediction
作者: Sompop MoonchaiWanwisa RakpuangMin-Chie Chiu
作者单位: 1Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
2Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Kamphaeng Phet Rajabhat University, Kamphaeng Phet 62000, Thailand
刊名: Modelling and Simulation in Engineering, 2015, Vol.2015
来源数据库: Hindawi Journal
DOI: 10.1155/2015/126738
原始语种摘要: This paper presents a modified grey model GMC ( 1 , n ) for use in systems that involve one dependent system behavior and n - 1 relative factors. The proposed model was developed from the conventional GMC ( 1 , n ) model in order to improve its prediction accuracy by modifying the formula for calculating the background value, the system of parameter estimation, and the model prediction equation. The modified GMC ( 1 , n ) model was verified by two cases: the study of forecasting CO2 emission in Thailand and forecasting electricity consumption in Thailand. The results demonstrated that the modified GMC ( 1 , n ) model was able to achieve higher fitting and prediction accuracy compared with the conventional GMC ( 1 , n ) and D-GMC ( 1 , n ) models.
全文获取路径: Hindawi 

  • GMC Geiger-Muller Counter
  • forecasting 预报
  • consumption 消耗
  • model 模型
  • system 
  • electricity 电气
  • prediction 预报
  • Thailand 泰国
  • proposed 建议的
  • formula 公式