When is it better to wait for a new version? Optimal replacement of an emerging technology under uncertainty
作者: Michail ChronopoulosAfzal Siddiqui
作者单位: 1Norwegian School of Economics
2University of Brighton
3University College London
4Stockholm University
刊名: Annals of Operations Research, 2015, Vol.235 (1), pp.177-201
来源数据库: Springer Nature Journal
DOI: 10.1007/s10479-015-2010-6
关键词: Investment analysisReal optionsEmerging technologiesDynamic programming
原始语种摘要: Abstract(#br)Firms that use an emerging technology often face uncertainty in both the arrival of new versions and the revenue that may be earned from their deployment. Via a sequential decision-making framework, we determine the value of the investment opportunity and the optimal replacement rule under three different strategies: compulsive, laggard, and leapfrog. In the first one, a firm invests sequentially in every version that becomes available, whereas in the second and third ones, it first waits for a new version to arrive and then either invests in the older or the newer version, respectively. We show that, under a compulsive strategy, technological uncertainty has a non-monotonic impact on the optimal investment decision. In fact, uncertainty regarding the availability of future...
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影响因子:1.029 (2012)

  • uncertainty 不定
  • emerging 浮起
  • better 较好的
  • technology 工艺
  • replacement 交代
  • version 变种
  • under 在下