Error sensitivity analysis in 10–30-day extended range forecasting by using a nonlinear cross-prediction error model
作者: Zhiye XiaLisheng XuHongbin ChenYongqian WangJinbao LiuWenlan Feng
作者单位: 1Chengdu University of Information Technology
2Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province
3Chinese Academy of Sciences
刊名: Journal of Meteorological Research, 2017, Vol.31 (3), pp.567-575
来源数据库: Springer Nature Journal
DOI: 10.1007/s13351-017-6098-2
关键词: Extended range forecastingRandom errorInitial errorModel parameter errorSensitivity
英文摘要: Extended range forecasting of 10–30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10–30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small...
原始语种摘要: Extended range forecasting of 10–30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10–30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small...
全文获取路径: Springer Nature  (合作)
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关键词翻译
关键词翻译
  • error 误差
  • forecasting 预报
  • extended 扩展
  • prediction 预报
  • range 射程
  • nonlinear 非线性的
  • random 随机的
  • initial 开首字母
  • precipitable 可沉淀的
  • sensitivity 灵敏度