Error sensitivity analysis in 10–30-day extended range forecasting by using a nonlinear cross-prediction error model

作者： | Zhiye Xia, Lisheng Xu, Hongbin Chen, Yongqian Wang, Jinbao Liu, Wenlan Feng |

作者单位： |
^{1}Chengdu University of Information Technology^{2}Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province^{3}Chinese Academy of Sciences |

刊名： | Journal of Meteorological Research, 2017, Vol.31 (3), pp.567-575 |

来源数据库： | Springer Nature Journal |

DOI： | 10.1007/s13351-017-6098-2 |

关键词： | Extended range forecasting; Random error; Initial error; Model parameter error; Sensitivity; |

英文摘要： | Extended range forecasting of 10–30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10–30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small... |

原始语种摘要： | Extended range forecasting of 10–30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10–30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small... |

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