Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework, southwest of Iran
作者: Reza ZamaniAli-Mohammad Akhond-AliAbbas RoozbahaniRouhollah Fattahi
作者单位: 1Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2University of Tehran
3Shahrekord University
刊名: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017, Vol.129 (3-4), pp.1109-1121
来源数据库: Springer Nature Journal
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-016-1835-5
关键词: Emission ScenarioBase PeriodFuture PeriodProbability ScenarioIrrigation Water Requirement
原始语种摘要: Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Given the importance of water availability in crop production, the present study focused on risk assessment of climate change impact on agricultural water requirement in southwest of Iran, under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) for the future period (2025–2054). A multi-model ensemble framework based on mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method and a combined probabilistic approach Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and change factor (CF) have been used for downscaling to manage the uncertainty of outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs). The results showed an increasing temperature in all months and irregular changes of...
全文获取路径: Springer Nature  (合作)
影响因子:1.759 (2012)

  • water 
  • requirement 要求
  • expected 预期
  • resources 资源
  • ensemble 
  • demand 需用电力
  • scenarios 剧情
  • model 模型
  • uncertainty 不定
  • consumption 消耗