Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales
作者: E. Blanchard-WrigglesworthA. BarthélemyM. ChevallierR. CullatherN. FučkarF. MassonnetP. PoseyW. WangJ. ZhangC. ArdilouzeC. M. BitzG. VernieresA. WallcraftM. Wang
作者单位: 1University of Washington
2Université catholique de Louvain
3Météo France
4NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
5Barcelona Supercomputing Center
6Stennis Space Center
7NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center
8Science Systems and Applications, Inc.
9National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
刊名: Climate Dynamics, 2017, Vol.49 (4), pp.1399-1410
来源数据库: Springer Nature Journal
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3388-9
关键词: Sea iceSeasonal forecastArcticForecast uncertainty
英文摘要: Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or forecast post-processing (bias correction) techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with...
原始语种摘要: Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or forecast post-processing (bias correction) techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with...
全文获取路径: Springer Nature  (合作)
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影响因子:4.231 (2012)

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关键词翻译
关键词翻译
  • forecast 预报
  • uncertainty 不定
  • regional 地方的
  • model 模型
  • seasonal 季节性的
  • September 九月
  • calculate 计算
  • over 在上方
  • processing 加工
  • offering 报价