The Effect of Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility on Uganda’s Trade Balance (1993-2015)
作者: Dennis Mahebe1 Francis Wasswa2 and Willy Kagarura3
刊名: Journal of Modern Economy, 2020, Vol.3
来源数据库: eScience Publisher
DOI: 10.28933/jme-2019-12-2205
关键词: REER-VolatilityTrade BalanceGARCHARDLJ-CurveMarshal-Lerner Condition
原始语种摘要: This paper investigated the effect of Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) volatility on Uganda’s Trade Balance for the period 1993Q4 to 2015Q4 by employing the GARCH and ARDL methodology. The ARDL results revealed a negative relationship between the trade balance and the volatility of the real effective exchange rate in the short run. The Impulse Response Function results show evidence of the J-Curve on Uganda’s Trade Balance. Also, the results on the REER indicate that the Marshal-Lerner Condition holds for Uganda’s case. The study therefore recommends that developing a well-developed hedging facility like forward markets and institutions is critical in protecting exporters against exchange rate risk in the short run by reducing volatility of the real effective exchange rate with the aim...
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  • volatility 挥发性
  • Uganda 乌干达
  • hedging 买现卖期
  • trade 买卖
  • methodology 方法学
  • short 短的
  • holds 货舱
  • balance 平衡
  • evidence 
  • effective 有效的