Decomposition of growth rates for the Russian economy
作者: Drobyshevsky, Sergey M.Idrisov, GeorgyKaukin, AndreyPavlov, PavelSinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey G.
刊名: Russian Journal of Economics, 2018, Vol.4 , pp.305-327
来源数据库: Redaktsiya zhurnala Voprosy Ekonomiki
DOI: 10.3897/j.ruje.4.33617
关键词: Economic growthtotal factor productivityNAWRUterms of tradebusiness cycle
原始语种摘要: In this paper, we present a methodology of GDP growth rate decomposition adapted for the Russian economy. We calculated the indicators for structural unemployment (NAWRU) and total factor productivity in Russia. We estimated the structural, foreign trade and cyclical components of GDP growth rates under various macroeconomic scenarios for the period from 2018 through 2024. The study shows that a significant contribution to growth rates for the period 2018 through 2024 will be made by the sum of the business cycle and random shock component, which, combined with the revitalization of investments in 2017, may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. In the scenarios reviewed, the contribution from the foreign trade component will be negative from 2018 to 2024. The...
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  • economy 经济
  • rates 地方税
  • macroeconomic 宏观经济的
  • growth 生长
  • unemployment 失业
  • cyclical 轮生的
  • trade 买卖
  • scenarios 剧情
  • methodology 方法学
  • decomposition 分解